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Wed, 24 Sep 2008
Over the past 25 years, as our nation has disassembled its manufacturing base and shipped those jobs elsewhere, we've heard over and over again about how that's ok, because those kind of "old economy" jobs were the thing of the past and the "new economy" would provide lots of jobs in finance, service, software, design, and management. We were all supposed to become "knowledge workers", according to Peter Drucker. In the new economy assets are "minds rather than machines," said George Gilder. The new economy was to be clean, smooth and prosperous.
Admittedly, we haven't heard much about all this lately. Gilder's newsletter and web site empire collapsed after the technology stock crash in 2000-2001. Some of the other cheerleaders have gone to ground, while others have said they were right all along -- about different predictions. But the truth is that the events of the past year, and especially the past week, have made everyone a little skittish about imagining an economic future that depends on finance. (Except securities lawyers, who are going to have a little boom of their own over the next few years as the sub-prime mess gets untangled.)
The other parts of the new economy order are cause for concern, too. Service jobs are, in general, not the kind of high-wage jobs around which much else can be built. The software industry is still not a bad bet, but as big as Microsoft is, the whole industry is still a tiny fraction of the US economy. Combining computer manufacturing, data processing services and software, we're talking a bit less than 3% of the US economy.
So, if the new economy really isn't the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, and we've already given away most of our manufacturing jobs, what's left? One answer is to look ahead at some new markets that are developing.
In the early 1980's, I worked at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, on issues related to global warming. (We called it the greenhouse effect back then.) At the time, there was little controversy I noticed about whether the effect was real or whether it was manmade. Those were settled issues. The research I helped with (partly funded by oil companies) was all about trying to characterize the rate at which processes on which warming depends can be expected to happen. Now, 26 years later, there's a certain gratification in seeing that what was widely accepted in the world of oceanography back then is gradually gaining acceptance in the rest of the world. Of course the gratification is tempered by astonishment that it's taken so long, but better late than never, I guess.
But now that global warming is on enough people's minds, what can we do about it? And why did the subject change to global warming? Weren't we just talking about manufacturing and the economy?
Well, it's possible that the two subjects can be the same subject. As more and more people become aware of the need to reduce our reliance on carbon-based fuels, it's pretty natural to expect that the demand for wind and solar energy equipment and whatever else comes along will rise. As heating fuel costs go up and up, the payoff for insulating your house gets shorter and shorter. As electricity prices rise, so does the appeal of solar electric panels. The more expensive gas gets, the better-looking one of those electric cars gets.
All of these factors mean that there are opportunities ahead for mechanics who learn how to fix electric cars, for insulation contractors, for shops who can build and market wind turbines, and for companies who will exploit technologies we haven't even thought of yet.
To the extent that these "green" jobs of the future are service jobs, few will be exported to China (you can't ship your front wall over to China for insulation), and to the extent that they're new technologies, they will be fertile ground for entrepreneurs to find and exploit new opportunities quickly.
In 2007, Congress passed the "Green Jobs Act", also known as Title X of the 2007 Energy bill. The bill passed, and is intended to create job-training programs for green jobs, but it's stalled now, while Congress decides whether to fund it or not. Funding this will help, though it's only a beginning. The Federal government provides tremendous subsidies and tax credits every year to the oil, gas and coal industries, and to various aspects of the construction industry, too. These subsidies should be re-engineered to promote the development of the technologies we'll need if we're going to turn back the tide, so to speak. In a state with as much low-lying swamp as we have, this is speaking directly to our future.
This coming Saturday, the 27th of September, from 9:30 to 11:30AM, there will be a conference about "Greening the Rhode Island Economy" at the New England Institute of Technology, 2480 Post Road in Warwick. (The RIPTA service cutbacks haven't hit yet, so the number 14 bus goes right by, even on Saturday.)
Part of a larger national day of action organized by dozens of organizations in a coalition called "Green Jobs Now", the event will have its keynote address from Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, introduced by Providence Mayor David Cicilline. There will be short talks by economists and people working in job training, as well as construction industry representatives and more. The idea is both to educate people who want to learn more about what might be possible in a world with more green jobs, and to pressure Congress to fund the Green Jobs act, and take the next step beyond that. Join us, please.
The event is free, but the organizers ask you to please register at www.GreeningRIEconomy.com.
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